Crocodile Birkins are generally seen as the best of the best, retailing for around five times that of leather Birkins, they exist on a level attainable to an even smaller subset of Collectors. But does this translate into higher investment potential? The data says ‘No’ for 30s and 35s which decline at an annual average rate of -2% and -4% respectively (The 2020 averages for these sizes were $47,250 and $37,500 respectively). The smaller 25cm size, though, tells a different story. Back in 2010, all sizes of Croc Birkins averaged around $60,000 at auction, and while the 30s and 35s have more or less declined on average quite steadily, the 25s began their rebound back in 2018, when the average price jumped 20% from $48,300 to $52,000. Since then the average for this size has continued to climb, reaching $62,250 in 2020. This year, the results are even more astounding, with the five examples sold so far averaging almost $102,000 (Thanks mainly to the Vert Jade example that Christies sold for a record $193,200 in May, though two more examples also brought around $100,000 this year). I have not included any Himalayans, HSS, Diamond or Limited Edition bags in this data set.
When comparing these results to those of Crocodile and Alligator Kellys, its important to note that there are far fewer auction results for Kellys than Birkins. While hundreds of results are averaged for each Birkin size, Kelly 25s, 28s and 32s each have only around 50 results from which we can draw conclusions. That being said, 25cm Kellys seem to mirror the values of 25cm Birkins, with results climbing every year, and a big 46% jump in the first season of 2021, with the average going from $56,000 last year to $81,750 so far this year. The 28cm size, as well has had a big bump up in 2021 to almost $68,500 for Crocodile and Alligator versions, up from $44,000 the year before (between 2015 and 2020 the averages for these stayed within the $38,000-$48,000 range). The larger 32cm Kellys, though mirror their larger Birkin cousins, with values declining rather steadily at an average rate of -3% annually. The trends for these larger size bags go against the common assumption that Birkins are a good investment, though considering the average price for a Crocodile 35cm Birkin at auction is now around half their retail price, it could be a good time to buy on the secondary market on the assumption that trends are cyclical and big bags will be back in style at some point.
