Fall/Winter 2021 Market Report

Overview

As the year comes to a close, and the thousands of bags sold at auction come into perspective, 2021 reveals a market of unexpected highs and lows. The tastes of handbag collectors around the world as inscrutable as ever; deciphering what whims will whip bids to new dizzying heights next season as effective as asking for a Birkin at Chanel. Yet, we seek insights. This year Christie’s set a record for a non-Hima diamond Birkin, a 35 nonetheless, which achieved $288,495 despite this category long languishing as the exception to the rule that Birkins increase in value when they leave the store. Last year’s record-shattering Himas were followed this year by some strong results and some low results we haven’t seen the likes of since 2016. Let us not forget the record, which Christie’s broke on November 25th, with their Hong Kong sale of a 28cm Diamond Hima Kelly for $512,880, smashing the previous $435,375 record set by a 25cm Hima Kelly (no diamonds) in the same auction one year previous (Poly’s sale of a 28cm Diamond Hima Kelly for $461,538 also topped the previous record, but was achieved 5 days after the Christie’s auction).

Along with the first (two) diamond Hima Kellys ever to come to auction, other entrances were made by a black Lizard 20cm Kelly II with Palladium Hardware, the first of its kind, which achieved $46,813 at Christie’s. The Fray Birkin made it’s debut as well, with two examples (one Menthe and one Black) each selling for just over $30,000. Other records were set for Kelly Pochettes (Ombre Lizard Sotheby’s $75,600) and Leather Birkins overall (25cm Metallic Silver Chevre Sotheby’s $126,000).

Across the board every size and style of regular leather Birkin and Kelly saw increases in average value (except for 35cm Retourne Kellys which decreased $223). Retourne Kelly 25s jumped 27%, and their Sellier sisters 21%. Sellier 28s split the difference with a 25% increase. While it may seem 20cm Sellier Kellys, which grew 29% to an average price of $28,162 have increased the most in 2021, that honor actually goes to 35cm Sellier Kellys, which bucked their Retourne sisters to ballon 63% to an average prices of $15,425 (up from 2020’s average of $9,435). The mini Kelly-II isn’t even the second most aggressive grower, as 40cm Birkins (yes you read that correctly) increased 39% to an average value of $12,379. Is big back?

Himalayans

It’s almost poetic that Birkins and Kellys inspired by the world’s highest mountains would create such high peaks in the range of collectible bags. 2020 saw records shattered by a pair of 25cm Himas auctioned by Christie’s in Hong Kong, both of which, though diamondless, topped the previous record set by a Diamond Hima with the Birkin achieving $387,000 and the Kelly $435,375 (the previous record was $381,682 set by a Diamond Hima Birkin 30 at Christie’s in 2017). Another 25cm Hima Birkin topped $300,000 in Christie’s November 2021 Hong Kong Auction, and a 28cm Hima Kelly joined the $300K+ club with one selling for $354,200 at Christie’s in May of this year. A number of Himas sold surprising low this year with Christie’s November 23rd London sale featuring a 25cm Kelly that brought $150,469, a 25cm Birkin that sold for $133,750, a 30cm Birkin achieving $108,672 and a 35cm Birkin dipping below six figures to sell for a mere $91,953. Across the board Himas of all styles and sizes dropped in value this year with the exception of 28cm Kellys which gained an average $75,000 over their 2020 auction results to average $300,177 in 2021.

Picnic Kellys

Picnicking has always been a central activity in the Hermes life sportif. Osier wicker items such as trays, thermoses and such have been occasional presences in Hermes stores for decades, though the invention of the Picnic Kelly around a decade ago changed the game for this eternally summery material. The 35cm Picnic Kelly, which was followed by wicker versions of many iconic bags including the Sac Farming, Bolide, and Garden Party, was unique for its stark departure from practicality. Objectively difficult as both a handbag and as a picnic basket, the Kelly Picnic was undoubtedly meant for show. Fast forward and we find ourselves in the world of mini picnic Kellys. This diminutive edition of the full-size version (which itself made a resurgence in production in the late 2010’s) has taken Hermes collectors by storm. Not only is it produced in six different colors, it’s also freakin’ adorable. With a retail price reportedly around $11,000 this puny picnic pouch is the prime example of how Hermes bags can outpace all others on the secondary market. The arrival of the 20cm Picnic Kelly has notably diminished the value of the 35cm version, with auction prices dipping in the years since. Christie’s sold a 35cm Picnic Kelly on November 25th of this year for a mere $27,247 in Hong Kong, the first time one of these highly collectible bags has sold for less than $30,000 since 2012, and the second lowest price ever paid at auction for a picnic Kelly. Conversely, a record was set this year with Sotheby’s Hong Kong sale of a Vert Verone 20cm mini Picnic Kelly for $105,332, a surprising result not only for the number of digits involved, but also for the color itself, which otherwise would average lower than any other color of mini Kelly Picnic.

Mini-Kelly 20 IIs

Five years since the latest edition of Hermes’ iconic Kelly was released, the 20cm Mini-Kelly II has firmly cemented itself as the most valuable style produced. With average annual increases in auction prices nearing 28% and 29% in the years since 2019, this diminutive style has proven a runaway success and a smash hit with both experienced and young collectors. At least in leather, that is. Exotic Mini-Kelly IIs could not be more mercurial in their auction results. The record for this size is held by a shiny Black Alligator example with Gold hardware that achieved $96,600 at a Christie’s auction in May of this year, though the second place goes to a Violine Ostrich version, also with Gold hardware, that managed $83,850 in Christie’s November 2020 auction. One year later, a Blue Sapphir Ostrich Mini-Kelly II brought merely $28,936 setting a new record low for exotics in this size. The first Lizard example debuted in Christie’s November auction this year, a black version with Palladium hardware that brought $46,813, splitting the difference between the year’s averages for Alligator and Ostrich versions. A new record for Leather Mini-Kelly IIs was set this season with Poly’s December sale of a Rose Extreme & Rouge Couer Epsom Casaque example for $43,077. This style appears to be defining new heights within this market, regularly achieving prices previously unthinkable for bags of this size. The 20cm Mini-Kelly II is paving the road for larger styles to follow as this market continues to grow in the coming years.

Special Editions

Limited Editions have always been an important part of Hermes collecting. Each year the house may or may not release a new or a few fresh versions of their iconic designs, destined for undetermined yet limited production runs. While some of the most recent Limiteds have yet to make their way across an auction block, this season saw the market debuts of 35cm Fray and 25cm Shadow Birkins, the latter of which decidedly overtook their 35cm cousins with all five examples offered selling for $40,000 or more. The 25cm Cargo Birkin has not yet come to auction, though its 35cm sisters have begin to cluster around the $35,000 mark after the initial three offerings topped $50,000. At the top of the market, Fauboug Birkins experienced an unexpected switch in average auction prices in 2021 with the six brown versions ($199,757) overtaking the six blue versions ($188,865), though the $300,938 debut of the white Faubourg Birkin in Christie’s November auction sets a new standard for these highly collectable bags. Will the hotly anticipated black Fauboug Birkin top is snowy sister upon its auction debut? The exceptional 22cm Kelly Wood has made its home in the six-figure range along with the Faubourg Birkins. Though the initial $257,600 result at Christie’s in May was followed by a surprising $150,496 at Christie’s in November, another example brought $223,007 at Poly auction in December, securing a solid range for this hard-to-find piece.

Lizard

Lizard Birkins and Kellys have always been rare, difficult to find not only at Hermes but also at auction. Since 2017 the number of Lizard bags to cross the block each year has dwindled from 18 to 6 in 2021, and the prices are starting to reflect this marked scarcity. Buoyed by the record setting $88,688 paid for a Black Lizard Kelly 25 with Palladium Hardware at Christie’s in November 2020, the year’s average price re-adjusted in 2021 to nearly match the $41,782 average for Lizard Birkins. Average prices for Lizard Pochettes more than doubled to $28,473 thanks mainly to the $43,077 achieved by a Blue Sapphir Lizard Pochette with Palladium Hardware at Poly in December.